Solar Cycle 25 after the maximum: what 2026–2028 means for the northern lights

Solar Cycle 25 peaked in October 2024, when the smoothed sunspot number reached about 161 (SIDC). The Sun is now in the declining phase, and NOAA's prediction has the smoothed sunspot number around 88 through winter 2026–27, falling to about 35 by late 2028. For aurora hunters that means two things: under the auroral oval nothing important changes, and at mid-latitudes the big storm nights will become rarer but not stop.

This article explains what the cycle is, what has happened so far, what the official prediction says for 2026–2028, and how it should (and should not) change your plans.

The solar cycle in one minute

The Sun's magnetic activity rises and falls over roughly 11 years. At solar maximum the Sun has many sunspots and active regions, which launch more flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the clouds of magnetised plasma behind most big geomagnetic storms. At solar minimum there are few spots, and aurora is driven mostly by fast solar wind from coronal holes.

The sunspot number is the standard measure. Because it jumps around month to month, scientists use a 13-month smoothed value to date the peak, which is why a maximum can only be confirmed months after it happens.

Cycle 25 so far

• December 2019: the cycle began at solar minimum, with a smoothed sunspot number of about 2 (NOAA data).
• 2019 prediction: the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel expected a modest peak; SIDC summarises its range as 105–125 for the smoothed maximum.
• 10–11 May 2024: a G5 (extreme) storm, the first since 2003, brought aurora to much of the US and Europe.
• August 2024: the highest monthly sunspot number of the cycle, about 216 (NOAA data).
• 15 October 2024: NASA and NOAA announced that the Sun had reached its solar maximum period, and cautioned that the exact peak would be identified only in hindsight.
• October 2024: the smoothed peak, about 161 by SIDC's figures (160.9 in NOAA's data file), well above the 2019 forecast. A G4 storm on 10–11 October 2024 produced widespread mid-latitude aurora.
• November 2025 and January 2026: G4 (severe) storms, more than a year after the peak.
• 2026: monthly sunspot numbers have ranged between about 60 and 115, with September 2026 at about 60 (NOAA data).

What NOAA predicts for 2026–2028

NOAA SWPC publishes an updated solar cycle progression every month. Its prediction for the smoothed sunspot number, as published in October 2026:

The prediction comes with a wide uncertainty band, and the curve is not a forecast of individual storms. But the direction is clear: winter 2026–27 is still fairly active, 2027–28 less so, and the end of the decade quiet.

Why big storms still come after the peak

The declining phase has a reputation among space weather forecasters for large, sometimes extreme storms:

• The Halloween storms of October 2003, among the strongest of the space age, came a few years after Cycle 23's maximum.
• The September 2017 storm (G4) followed one of the largest flares of the cycle, close to the end of Cycle 24.
• In Cycle 25, the G4 storms of November 2025 and January 2026 came after the smoothed peak.

There is also a steadier effect. As the cycle declines, large, long-lived coronal holes become more common, and their fast solar wind streams recur every 27 days or so as the Sun rotates. They usually drive minor to moderate storms (G1–G2), which are exactly what lights up the Arctic sky, and they are what NOAA's 27-day outlook captures.

None of this makes extreme storms predictable. NOAA's scales put G5 storms at about four per cycle and G4 at about 100, and they cluster around, not exactly at, the maximum.

What it means for you

If you are travelling to the Arctic

Very little changes. Under the oval in Tromsø, Abisko, Lapland, Fairbanks or Yellowknife, the aurora appears on most clear, dark nights even at solar minimum, because ordinary solar wind keeps the oval active. Cloud climate, darkness and the number of nights matter far more than the cycle. Our guides to the best time to go and where to go focus on those.

There is one honest caveat. Bright, fast, colourful displays with red tops and coronas overhead are more frequent in active years. If seeing a big show is the point, winter 2026–27 is still a good season to go.

If you live at mid-latitudes

The nights when the aurora reaches the northern US, the UK or central Europe will become rarer through 2027 and 2028. They will not disappear: G3–G4 storms still happen in the declining phase, and moderate storms from coronal holes keep reaching the northern tier. The practical answer is to be ready rather than to wait: sign up for alerts for your own location, know a dark spot to the north, and read our storm-night guide.

If you are deciding between this winter and later

If you have the choice, 2026–27 is better than 2027–28, and both are better than the quiet years around 2030. But do not postpone a trip to the oval because of the cycle; a cloudy week costs you far more than a lower sunspot number.

Watching the cycle yourself

• NOAA SWPC's solar cycle progression page updates each month.
• The Royal Observatory of Belgium's SIDC/SILSO is the official keeper of the sunspot number.
• On storm nights, our storm status page and expert panel show NOAA alerts, Kp and live solar wind.

For the physics of how a CME turns into light in the sky, see what is the aurora; for what Kp and the G scale mean, the Kp index explained.